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Treasuries: Who’s Buying and Why It Matters | Weekly Market Commentary | February 20, 2024

Treasuries: Who’s Buying and Why It Matters | Weekly Market Commentary | February 20, 2024

As the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues with its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program, questions abound regarding the Treasury Department’s expanding funding needs. The QT program is designed to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet — now $7.7 billion down from $9 billion —...
Outlook For U.S. Economy Continues To Brighten | Weekly Market Commentary | February 12, 2024

Outlook For U.S. Economy Continues To Brighten | Weekly Market Commentary | February 12, 2024

When we wrote the annual outlook last November, the data was mixed. Some metrics hinted at emerging cracks in the economy while others suggested the growth trajectory in capital markets and the economy had legs. So, the variety of the data produced the narrative that...
Will The January Barometer Come Through? | Weekly Market Commentary | February 5, 2024

Will The January Barometer Come Through? | Weekly Market Commentary | February 5, 2024

A positive January has historically been a bullish sign for stocks. Yale Hirsch, creator of the “Stock Trader’s Almanac”, first discovered this seasonal pattern back in 1972, which he called the January Barometer and coined its popular tagline of ‘As goes January, so...
Is Too Much Optimism Priced In? | Weekly Market Commentary | January 29, 2024

Is Too Much Optimism Priced In? | Weekly Market Commentary | January 29, 2024

With the S&P 500 having recently ascended to a fresh record high after such a strong 2023, it’s natural for investors to worry that valuations have become over-extended. On traditional valuation measures, valuations do appear high and it does seem reasonable to...
Will Shipping Disruptions Alter Fed Plans? | Weekly Market Commentary | January 22, 2024

Will Shipping Disruptions Alter Fed Plans? | Weekly Market Commentary | January 22, 2024

Shipping disruptions in the Red Sea could temporarily impact goods prices but not at the same magnitude as during the pandemic. Tight financial conditions, slowing economic growth, and a disinflationary trend all support the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) pivot away from...
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